**Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) Ensemble Products - Week 4 Convection / Severe Weather****
The output on this site is based on a 20-member ensemble generated from the four daily CFS control runs (00, 06, 12, & 18 UTC) over the past five days. Output is updated as each cycle is processed, and is typically available approximately 15 hours after cycle time (e.g. output which includes the latest 00 UTC run is available around 15 UTC).
**Details on the CFS can be found at http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov.

Probability of CAPE > 1500 |

Probability of Convective Precip & CAPE > 1500 |

Probability of CAPE > 2500 |

Probability of CAPE > 500 & 0-3 km SRH > 150 |

Probability of CAPE > 1500 & 0-3 km SRH > 150 |

Probability of CAPE > 500 & 0-3 km SRH > 300 |

Probability of CAPE > 1500 & 0-3 km SRH > 300 |

Probability of Convective Precip, CAPE > 500, & 0-3 km SRH > 150 |

Probability of Convective Precip, CAPE > 1500, & 0-3 km SRH > 150 |

Probability of Convective Precip, CAPE > 500, & 0-3 km SRH > 300 |

Probability of Convective Precip, CAPE > 1500, & 0-3 km SRH > 300 |

Probability of CAPE > 500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125 |

Probability of CAPE > 1500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125 |

Probability of CAPE > 500, 0-3 km SRH > 300, & 0-1 km SRH > 175 |

Probability of CAPE > 1500, 0-3 km SRH > 300, & 0-1 km SRH > 175 |

Probability of Convective Precip, CAPE > 500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125 |

Probability of Convective Precip, CAPE > 1500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125 |

Probability of Convective Precip, CAPE > 500, 0-3 km SRH > 300, & 0-1 km SRH > 175 |

Probability of Convective Precip, CAPE > 1500, 0-3 km SRH > 300, & 0-1 km SRH > 175 |

Maximum # of Days w/CAPE > 1500 |

Maximum # of Days w/Convective Precip & CAPE > 1500 |

Maximum # of Days w/CAPE > 2500 |

Maximum # of Days w/CAPE > 500 & 0-3 km SRH > 150 |

Maximum # of Days w/CAPE > 1500 & 0-3 km SRH > 150 |

Maximum # of Days w/Convective Precip, CAPE > 500, & 0-3 km SRH > 150 |

Maximum # of Days w/Convective Precip, CAPE > 1500, & 0-3 km SRH > 150 |

Maximum # of Days w/CAPE > 500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125 |

Maximum # of Days w/CAPE > 1500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125 |

Maximum # of Days w/Convective Precip, CAPE > 500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125 |

Maximum # of Days w/Convective Precip, CAPE > 1500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125 |

Minimum # of Days w/CAPE > 1500 |

Minimum # of Days w/Convective Precip & CAPE > 1500 |

Minimum # of Days w/CAPE > 2500 |

Minimum # of Days w/CAPE > 500 & 0-3 km SRH > 150 |

Minimum # of Days w/CAPE > 1500 & 0-3 km SRH > 150 |

Minimum # of Days w/Convective Precip, CAPE > 500, & 0-3 km SRH > 150 |

Minimum # of Days w/Convective Precip, CAPE > 1500, & 0-3 km SRH > 150 |

Minimum # of Days w/CAPE > 500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125 |

Minimum # of Days w/CAPE > 1500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125 |

Minimum # of Days w/Convective Precip, CAPE > 500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125 |

Minimum # of Days w/Convective Precip, CAPE > 1500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125 |

Mean # of Days w/CAPE > 1500 |

Mean # of Days w/Convective Precip & CAPE > 1500 |

Mean # of Days w/CAPE > 2500 |

Mean # of Days w/CAPE > 500 & 0-3 km SRH > 150 |

Mean # of Days w/CAPE > 1500 & 0-3 km SRH > 150 |

Mean # of Days w/Convective Precip, CAPE > 500, & 0-3 km SRH > 150 |

Mean # of Days w/Convective Precip, CAPE > 1500, & 0-3 km SRH > 150 |

Mean # of Days w/CAPE > 500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125 |

Mean # of Days w/CAPE > 1500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125 |

Mean # of Days w/Convective Precip, CAPE > 500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125 |

Mean # of Days w/Convective Precip, CAPE > 1500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125 |

If you have a request or any other questions/comments, please contact Tom Hultquist.

DISCLAIMER: The prognostics depicted on these pages may not be available at all times. The accuracy or reliability of the data is not guaranteed nor warranted in any way. The data is provided as is and should not be used as the sole resource for decision making. Numerical forecast guidance is best interpreted by a professional meteorologist who is familiar with the particular modeling system, including any model biases. |