Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) Ensemble Products - Convection / Severe Weather
The output on this site is based on a 20-member ensemble generated from the four daily CFS control runs (00, 06, 12, & 18 UTC) over the past five days. Output is updated as each cycle is processed, and is typically available approximately 15 hours after cycle time (e.g. output which includes the latest 00 UTC run is available around 15 UTC).

Details on the CFS can be found at http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov.

The CAPE represented in these images is the 0-180 mb AGL "Best" CAPE.

Ensemble Products - Convection Severe Weather
latest run in current ensemble set: 18 UTC 15 August 2022
  All Times Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Weeks 3-4 Weeks 5-6 Weeks 3-6
All Fields  
Probability of CAPE > 1500
Probability of Convective Precip & CAPE > 1500
Probability of CAPE > 2500
Probability of CAPE > 500 & 0-3 km SRH > 150
Probability of CAPE > 1500 & 0-3 km SRH > 150
Probability of CAPE > 500 & 0-3 km SRH > 300
Probability of CAPE > 1500 & 0-3 km SRH > 300
Probability of Convective Precip, CAPE > 500, & 0-3 km SRH > 150
Probability of Convective Precip, CAPE > 1500, & 0-3 km SRH > 150
Probability of Convective Precip, CAPE > 500, & 0-3 km SRH > 300
Probability of Convective Precip, CAPE > 1500, & 0-3 km SRH > 300
Probability of CAPE > 500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125
Probability of CAPE > 1500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125
Probability of CAPE > 500, 0-3 km SRH > 300, & 0-1 km SRH > 175
Probability of CAPE > 1500, 0-3 km SRH > 300, & 0-1 km SRH > 175
Probability of Convective Precip, CAPE > 500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125
Probability of Convective Precip, CAPE > 1500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125
Probability of Convective Precip, CAPE > 500, 0-3 km SRH > 300, & 0-1 km SRH > 175
Probability of Convective Precip, CAPE > 1500, 0-3 km SRH > 300, & 0-1 km SRH > 175
Maximum # of Days w/CAPE > 1500
Maximum # of Days w/Convective Precip & CAPE > 1500
Maximum # of Days w/CAPE > 2500
Maximum # of Days w/CAPE > 500 & 0-3 km SRH > 150
Maximum # of Days w/CAPE > 1500 & 0-3 km SRH > 150
Maximum # of Days w/Convective Precip, CAPE > 500, & 0-3 km SRH > 150
Maximum # of Days w/Convective Precip, CAPE > 1500, & 0-3 km SRH > 150
Maximum # of Days w/CAPE > 500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125
Maximum # of Days w/CAPE > 1500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125
Maximum # of Days w/Convective Precip, CAPE > 500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125
Maximum # of Days w/Convective Precip, CAPE > 1500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125
Minimum # of Days w/CAPE > 1500
Minimum # of Days w/Convective Precip & CAPE > 1500
Minimum # of Days w/CAPE > 2500
Minimum # of Days w/CAPE > 500 & 0-3 km SRH > 150
Minimum # of Days w/CAPE > 1500 & 0-3 km SRH > 150
Minimum # of Days w/Convective Precip, CAPE > 500, & 0-3 km SRH > 150
Minimum # of Days w/Convective Precip, CAPE > 1500, & 0-3 km SRH > 150
Minimum # of Days w/CAPE > 500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125
Minimum # of Days w/CAPE > 1500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125
Minimum # of Days w/Convective Precip, CAPE > 500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125
Minimum # of Days w/Convective Precip, CAPE > 1500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125
Mean # of Days w/CAPE > 1500
Mean # of Days w/Convective Precip & CAPE > 1500
Mean # of Days w/CAPE > 2500
Mean # of Days w/CAPE > 500 & 0-3 km SRH > 150
Mean # of Days w/CAPE > 1500 & 0-3 km SRH > 150
Mean # of Days w/Convective Precip, CAPE > 500, & 0-3 km SRH > 150
Mean # of Days w/Convective Precip, CAPE > 1500, & 0-3 km SRH > 150
Mean # of Days w/CAPE > 500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125
Mean # of Days w/CAPE > 1500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125
Mean # of Days w/Convective Precip, CAPE > 500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125
Mean # of Days w/Convective Precip, CAPE > 1500, 0-3 km SRH > 150, & 0-1 km SRH > 125

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DISCLAIMER: The prognostics depicted on these pages may not be  available at all times. The accuracy or reliability of the data is not guaranteed nor warranted in any way. The data is provided as is and should not be used as the sole resource for decision making. Numerical forecast guidance is best interpreted by a professional meteorologist who is familiar with the particular modeling system, including any model biases.